Mapping systemic risk: critical degree and failures distribution in financial networks

The 2008 financial crisis illustrated the need for a thorough, functional understanding of systemic risk in strongly interconnected financial structures. Dynamic processes on complex networks being intrinsically difficult, most recent studies of this problem have relied on numerical simulations. Here we report analytical results in a network model of interbank lending based on directly relevant financial parameters, such as interest rates and leverage ratios. Using a mean-field approach, we obtain a closed-form formula for the "critical degree", viz. the number of creditors per bank below which an individual shock can propagate throughout the network. We relate the failures distribution (probability that a single shock induces $F$ failures) to the degree distribution (probability that a bank has $k$ creditors), showing in particular that the former is fat-tailed whenever the latter is. Our criterion for the onset of contagion turns out to be isomorphic to the condition for cooperation to evolve on graphs and social networks, as recently formulated in evolutionary game theory. This remarkable connection supports recent calls for a methodological rapprochement between finance and ecology.Comment: 19 pages, 4 figure

Coupling photovoltaics and grid-scale energy storage : performance and sitability

The Fifth Assessment of the International Panel on Climate Change has called for a four fold increase in the use of low-carbon sources of electricity to help stabilize climate change by mid century. Many people look to solar power systems to help reduce carbon intensity, but cost and variability have been significant obstacles to their widespread deployment. However, the cost of photovoltaics has dropped significantly in recent years, and grid-scale energy storage technologies are available to allow for production of dispatchable electricity from photovoltaics. In particular, compressed-air energy storage is both low-cost and can be built in a wide variety of geologies as well as above ground. I show that coupling large-scale photovoltaic arrays and grid-scale storage allows for dispatchable electricity production at costs that are comparable to other low carbon electricity sources. I examine four load curves: base-load generation, on-peak generation, and averaged load curves for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and PJM Independent System Operators. I found that on-peak and ERCOT loads typically required the lowest amount of storage, up to 2000 MWh [subscript e] less than that for base-load generation. However, in some regions, and for some storage amounts, baseload output actually provided the lowest cost of electricity. I also show that such coupled systems could provide base-load electricity for ≤ 0.08/kWh [subscript e] on more than 40% of global land surface, with a capacity factor equivalent to that of the US nuclear fleet. Importantly, this is below the projected cost of electricity from new nuclear power systems. While cost is a major factor, also of importance is where systems of photovoltaics and grid-scale storage would provide the most benefit. Locations expected to provide energy at the lowest cost do not necessarily correspond to load and population centers, where the electricity is most needed. I use multi-criteria decision analysis techniques to perform a global study of the optimal locations for siting these coupled systems to maximize their social benefit. I found that the most ideal locations are generally located in Africa, Iraq, and southeast Asia, as these locations have both high irradiance levels as well as expanding populations and low grid connectivity.Mechanical Engineerin

Critical connectivity in banking networks

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 demonstrated the need to understand the macrodynamics of interconnected financial systems. A fruitful approach to this problem regards financial infrastructures as weighted directed networks, with banks as nodes and loans as links. Using a simple banking model in which banks are linked through interbank lending, with an exogenous shock applied to a single bank, we find a closedform analytical solution for the degree at which failures begin to propagate in the network. This critical degree is expressed as a function of four financial parameters: banking leverage; interbank exposure; return on the investment opportunity; and interbank lending rate. While the transition to failure propagation is sharpest with regular networks, we observe it numerically for random and scale-free networks as well. We find that, if the expected number of failures is not strongly dependent on the network topology and is well captured by the notion of critical degree, the frequency of catastrophic cascades (with a single shock inducing all or most banks in the network to fail) tends to be much larger on scale-free networks than on classical random networks. We interpret this finding as a manifestation of the “robust-yet-fragile” property of scale-free networks

Concentrations of procalcitonin and C-reactive protein, white blood cell count, and the immature-to-total neutrophil ratio in the blood of neonates with nosocomial infections: Gram-negative bacilli vs coagulase-negative staphylococci

This study was undertaken to determine whether concentrations of procalcitonin in the blood of neonates with nosocomial infections depend on the type of pathogen. Qualification for the study group was based on the clinical signs of infection. We found that infections with Gram-positive (chiefly coagulase-negative staphylococci) and Gram-negative bacteria are accompanied by elevated concentrations of procalcitonin. In the case of Gram-positive bacteria, other laboratory signs of infection studied by us (concentration of C-reactive protein, white blood cell count, immature-to-total neutrophil ratio) were not discriminatory, confirming the diagnostic usefulness of procalcitonin measurements in nosocomial infections of the neonate with Gram-negative or Gram-positive bacteria

The speciation and genotyping of Cronobacter isolates from hospitalised patients

The World Health Organization (WHO) has recognised all Cronobacter species as human pathogens. Among premature neonates and immunocompromised infants, these infections can be life-threatening, with clinical presentations of septicaemia, meningitis and necrotising enterocolitis. The neurological sequelae can be permanent and the mortality rate as high as 40 – 80 %. Despite the highlighted issues of neonatal infections, the majority of Cronobacter infections are in the elderly population suffering from serious underlying disease or malignancy and include wound and urinary tract infections, osteomyelitis, bacteraemia and septicaemia. However, no age profiling studies have speciated or genotyped the Cronobacter isolates. A clinical collection of 51 Cronobacter strains from two hospitals were speciated and genotyped using 7-loci multilocus sequence typing (MLST), rpoB gene sequence analysis, O-antigen typing and pulsed- field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). The isolates were predominated by C. sakazakii sequence type 4 (63 %, 32/51) and C. malonaticus sequence type 7 (33 %, 17/51). These had been isolated from throat and sputum samples of all age groups, as well as recal and faecal swabs. There was no apparent relatedness between the age of the patient and the Cronobacter species isolated. Despite the high clonality of Cronobacter , PFGE profiles differentiated strains across the sequence types into 15 pulsotypes. There was almost complete agreement between O-antigen typing and rpoB gene sequence analysis and MLST profiling. This study shows the value of applying MLST to bacterial population studies with strains from two patient cohorts, combined with PFGE for further discrimination of strains

Midlatitude shelf seas in the Cenomanian-Turonian greenhouse world: Temperature evolution and North Atlantic circulation

An 8 million year record of subtropical and midlatitude shelf-sea temperatures, derived from oxygen isotopes of well-preserved brachiopods from a variety of European sections, demonstrates a long-term Cenomanian temperature rise (16–20°C, midlatitudes) that reached its maximum early in the late Turonian (23°C, midlatitudes). Superimposed on the long-term trend, shelf-sea temperatures vary at shorter timescales in relation to global carbon cycle perturbations. In the mid-Cenomanian and the late Turonian, two minor shelf-sea cooling events (2–3°C) coincide with carbon cycle perturbations and times of high-amplitude sea level falls. Although this evidence supports the hypothesis of potential glacioeustatic effects on Cretaceous sea level, the occurrence of minimum shelf-sea temperatures within transgressive beds argues for regional changes in shelf-sea circulation as the most plausible mechanism. The major carbon cycle event in the latest Cenomanian (oceanic anoxic event 2) is accompanied by a substantial increase in shelf-sea temperatures (4–5°C) that occurred ∼150 kyr after the commencement of the δ13C excursion and is related to the spread of oceanic conditions in western European shelf-sea basins. Our oxygen isotope record and published δ18O data of pristinely preserved foraminifera allow the consideration of North Atlantic surface water properties in the Cenomanian along a transect from the tropics to the midlatitudes. On the basis of fossil-derived δ18O, estimated δw ranges, and modeled salinities, temperature-salinity-density ranges were estimated for tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude surface waters. Accordingly, the Cenomanian temperate shelf-seas waters have potentially the highest surface water density and could have contributed to North Atlantic intermediate to deep waters in the preopening stage of the equatorial Atlantic gateway

Cleanup of industrial effluents containing heavy metals : a new opportunity of valorising the biomass produced by brewing industry

Heavy metal pollution is a matter of concern in industrialised countries. Contrary to organic pollutants, heavy metals are not metabolically degraded. This fact has two main consequences: its bioremediation requires another strategy and heavy metals can be indefinitely recycled. Yeast cells of Saccharomyces cerevisiae are produced at high amounts as a by-product of brewing industry constituting a cheap raw material. In the present work, the possibility of valorising this type of biomass in the bioremediation of real industrial effluents containing heavy metals is reviewed. Given the auto-aggregation capacity (flocculation) of brewing yeast cells, a fast and off-cost yeast separation is achieved after the treatment of metal-laden effluent, which reduces the costs associated with the process. This is a critical issue when we are looking for an effective, eco-friendly, and low-cost technology. The possibility of the bioremediation of industrial effluents linked with the selective recovery of metals, in a strategy of simultaneous minimisation of environmental hazard of industrial wastes with financial benefits from reselling or recycling the metals, is discussed

Cronobacter spp. as emerging causes of healthcare-associated infection

Background: Until recently, members of the Cronobacter genus (formerly known as Enterobacter sakazakii) were a relatively unknown cause of nosocomial infections. However, their association with infant infections, particularly through the consumption of contaminated reconstituted infant formula in neonatal intensive care units, has resulted in international efforts to improve neonatal health care. Aim: To investigate current understanding of this emergent group of bacterial pathogens and the steps taken to reduce neonatal infection. Methods: A literature review was undertaken to determine current knowledge of the Cronobacter genus with respect to recent taxonomic revisions, sources and clinical relevance. Findings: The majority of severe neonatal meningitis infections are associated with one of the 10 Cronobacter spp., the clonal complex known as C. sakazakii sequence type 4. International efforts by the Food and Agriculture Organization–World Health Organization (WHO) to reduce the risk of neonatal infection by this organism have resulted in improved microbiological safety of powdered infant formula (PIF), but revised guidelines for feeding practices have been problematic. In addition, the majority of infections occur in the adult population and the sources are unknown. Conclusion: International improvements in the microbiological safety of PIF and advice on feeding practices have focused on improving neonatal health care following the heightened awareness of Cronobacter infections in this particular age group. These measures are also likely to reduce neonatal exposure to other opportunistic bacterial pathogens, but a number of unresolved issues remain with respect to the practicalities of feeding premature neonates safely while following WHO advice

Spatial Pattern Enhances Ecosystem Functioning in an African Savanna

Termites indirectly enhance plant and animal productivity near their mounds, and the uniform spatial patterning of these mounds enhances the overall productivity of the entire landscape